Europe Faces Serb Frustrations

With the results of the 21 January Serbian legislative elections barely known, Martti Ahtisaari, the UN Special Envoy for the Future Status Process for Kosovo, delivered the broad outline of his proposal for the province which has been under UN administration since June 1999. While pressed by the ethnic Albanians, the 90 % of the province’s population who wish to break with Serbia and gain independence, he chose to wait until the Serbian legislative elections passed, to avoid further pressure on a political climate already favorable to the Serbian Radical Party (SRS). The SRS took 28 % of the votes while its leader Vojislav Seselj awaits his war crimes trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) at the Hague.

Regardless, the UN Special Envoy has hoped to shorten the delays by not waiting until the opposing parties succeed in forming a coalition government. None of the three leading political parties had garnered a strong enough majority to take the lead, and the negociations promise to be long and difficult.

On 24 January, Martti Ahtisaari presented some aspects of his proposal to the Council of Europe by which it hopes "to provide the foundations for a democratic and multi-ethnic Kosovo in which the rights and interests of all members of its communities are firmly guaranteed and protected by institutions based on the rule of law." He stressed that he would recommend "a strong international civilian and military presence within a broader future international engagement" and it plans to name a "an international civilian representative, or ICR, whose mandate will be to supervise implementation of the settlement and who will also be the European Union’s special representative."

It will undoubtedly operate like independence but as Germany’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gernot Erler announced "with limits on its sovereignty and also of the safety guarantees for minorities." And be very much framed by international institutions, the European Union initially. Subjacent in this proposal is the prospect of membership in the EU.

Martti Ahtisaari’s proposal’s first test is its 26 January presentation before the six countries of the Contact Group on Kosovo (Germany, the United States, France, Great Britain, Italy and Russia). The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, already announced that it would veto any Kosovo status solution unacceptable to either Kosovo or Serbia, its traditional ally. Last year, a series of discussions between Serb and Kosovo Albanian representatives had failed. And on February 2, the UN mediator has to meet with the governments in Belgrade and Pristina. The negociations promise to be difficult and will complicate those started to form a parliamentary majority in Serbia since the 21 January vote.

The EU strongly hopes for a coalition between Boris Tadic’s pro-Europe Democratic Party, and Vojislav Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia.Kostunica was the former opposition leader against Milosevic but is nevertheless very opposed to the idea of independent Kosovo. Both are vying for the Prime Minister’s post. Nothing yet indicates whether they will manage to get along or not.

For observers, the results of the Serbian vote and the extreme right-wing, nationalist xenophobic Radical Party’s place in the government are due to multiple frustrations including a worsening economic and social situation because of liberal reforms put in place in 2000, the fall of Slobodan Milosevic, and the powerful recommendations of the European Commission.

The feeling of several hundreds of thousands of Serbian refugees, from Bosnia, from Kosovo and Croatia, of being victims of national and international policies has reinforced frustrations. The ICTY, which is perceived as an anti-Serb political institution, adds to the rancour of a part of the population. In this context, a badly negotiated settlement of Kosovo’s status could sharpen these misgivings. translating to more significant support for the Radical Party in the event of new elections, which will be organized if no government is set up within three months.

It is in this context of deep instability that the EU would wish to play the Balkan integration card to try to contain nationalist drifts as much as possible. "Since the NATO bombardments, we proclaim a stabilization which is not real," analyzes Catherine Samary, a lecturer at the University of Dauphine. "The European Commission is confronted with several contradictions : it would like to stabilize the entire western Balkans by a coordinated integration, but it is obliged treat each country on a case by case basis."

Samary elaborates : "the EU wants to contain the rise of the xenophobe votes in Serbia with promises of integration to the EU, on the condition of a "good vote" - a vote for the candidates whom it supports - and with collaboration with the ICTY. Imposing such conditions tends to aggravate popular opinion and leads to the electoral results we are now seeing. Lastly, EU membership can be a carrot only if it credible and is associated with an improved standard of living. This is less and less credible, even if a part of the population can still think it preferable to be confronted with a slightly less savage capitalism inside the fortress of the rich."