The Kenyan Capital Walks on Hot Coals

“Over the past week the situation has become considerably calmer in Nairobi” explains Filipe Ribeiro, head of emergencies at Médecins Sans Frontières. In mid-January, the organisation, which has set up a service to help evacuate the injured from Matharé, one of several enormous shanty-towns on the outskirts of Nairobi, was receiving 20 injured patients a day, many of whom were in a serious condition. On Tuesday, however, the organisation, which is housed in a large hangar, received just one : a child hit by a car as he tried to flee from police. In the Kenyan capital, the violence, which erupted in the wake of the announcement of the Presidential Election results on December 27, seems to have ground to a halt. But still, everyone is holding their breath.

“These peace negotiations hold the key to everything”, remarks Michaël, who provides the link between MSF and the shanty-town inhabitants. On Tuesday, current negotiations, supported by Kofi Annan, between the declared President, Mwai Kibaki, and his challenger, Raila Ondinga entered a critical stage. While each party continues to claim victory, the debate now rests on the delicate issue of the "political crisis caused by the contested results from the Presidential Elections", as the ex-Secretary General of the UN explains.

“Everybody is waiting, but nobody really believes it” comments Jérôme Lafargue, a political scientist specialising on Kenya. On Wednesday, the opposition party once again provoked an increase in tension. Despite calls for order by Annan, it has renewed its threat to bring followers onto the streets to protest against the decision by the IGAD, a regional organisation, to officially recognise Kibaki’s election to government, granting him presidency of a meeting.

“They say that they have made peace, but we just can’t believe them” explains a small elderly lady, who is currently living in a makeshift camp on the side of the road, along with more than 300 other elderly residents of Matharé who all fled the violence at the start of the crisis. In the middle of the group of Kenyan Red Cross tents, a huddle of women from Kibaki’s ethnic group, the Kikuyu, discuss a meeting organised that day by the leaders of the shanty town of both camps.

“We want peace, but they cry “no Raila, no peace”, points out a young girl dressed in a t-shirt and fluorescent yellow running shoes. Community sentiment, already singed by a long history of political manipulation and social inequality, has been radicalised. Fear reigns supreme and according to numerous witnesses, propaganda leaflets, threatening reprisals if they don’t leave, are again in circulation.

“The big question is the level of control that the State and the opposition will impose on the militia” suggests Jérôme Lafargue. The militia, a number of highly organised and politically motivated groups were, it seemed, relenting but have recently started up again. With more than 500 members and fairly close to power, the most well-known group is the Mungiki. This group, a cross between a sect and an armed group, carries out a number of different activities from controlling illegal commerce to religious revivalism, as well as the protection of private interests and political violence.

The opposition boasts a similar structure, more notably in the Rift Valley, where there is still a presence from the remaining members of the military left over from the previous rule, ousted after the Kibaki’s arrival to power in 2002. Equally, the violence has produced organised gangs in the community, more motivated by the prospects of financial gain than by political considerations. It is feared that they could be spurred on at any moment by those left behind by the current economic crisis. This signals that the crime rate, which is already critical, could spiral out of control and all the more so since arms convoys have been being discovered since the crisis began. This leads people to fear the diffusion of arms beyond the large militia groups. “On both sides, the hardliners are ready to go as far as they can” states Jérôme Lafargue.