The Moment of Truth for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania

The United States : The latest surveys were giving the former first lady no more than a slender lead in a state where support for her had been thought to be guaranteed.

Will the Pennsylvania primaries act as a springboard for Hillary Clinton in her journey to the White House or will they be the blow which brings an end to her ambition to follow George W Bush ? Although she’s in her own territory – Pennsylvania is where her family has been settled for more than a century – it is far from certain that she will get the result which would allow her to win the votes which she is lacking.

In fact Barack Obama commands such a lead in the number of delegates supporting him – 1645 as opposed to 1504 – that it is mathematically impossible for Hillary Clinton to catch up in the primaries which remain to be decided, and win the 2025 votes required for popular nomination. She therefore has to count on the superdelegates, chosen by law from amongst the leaders of the Democratic Party, to be crowned at the Denver Convention at the end of July.

During a debate televised by ABC last Wednesday, she increased the personal attacks against Barack Obama. She criticised him for having made contemptuous comments against the inhabitants of small town Pennsylvania. He had declared that the closures of factories, the permanent unemployment and everything that had devastated industry in the last twenty five years during the mandates of Clinton and Bush, both Junior and Senior, had encouraged them to resort to religion, arms or resentment against people different from themselves.

Obama apologised for this. But the attacks have continued and have been taken up by the republican candidate under the name of ‘liberal’ which, in the United States amounts to leftist. Karl Rove, the election strategist of George W Bush, saw a Marxist in Obama, and one of his neoliberal colleagues recalled the opinion of Marx on the social role of religion – a theme clearly taken up by McCain. They paint Obama in red to worry the centrist electorate which everyone wants to win over.

The debate on Wednesday ended up being comprised solely of short sentences and superficial subjects. The two presenters on ABC moved away from asking about concerns about the arrival of a recession, about the consequences of the credit crunch, about depreciating pensions, to the extent that several commentators felt that it was ABC that lost the debate. But of course the media never pay much attention to the great political questions, preferring to rely on image rather than content, because in content there is (relatively) little difference between the opposing democratic candidates. The media preference is to show Bruce Springsteen concerts on the themes of the misery of abandoned towns to support Obama, as opposed to the syrupy Celine Dion, who sings the merits of Clinton.

However, according to the surveys, the primaries favour Hillary Clinton. But her lead could melt like snow in the Pennsylvania sun. She could win a slender lead over Barack Obama. But her success would be insufficient to ensure the majority of the superdelegates – from whom she expects a return on the capital of services rendered during Bill Clinton’s presidency. The advantage would then lie with the new man, the man of change whom Barack Obama wants to embody.

Will we have a clear response on Tuesday ? Nothing is less certain and the spectacle of this hard fought battle between the democratic candidates could continue until June, to McCain’s delight, who is pursuing a campaign without any opponent.