Cold Sweat in Dublin

Dublin, special envoy

The Irish will decide by referendum, this Thursday, on the Treaty of Lisbon, the resurrected form of the project for a European constitution rejected in 2005 by the French and the Dutch peoples. Being the only country in the European Union to submit this decision to referendum, a procedure required by its constitution, Ireland is in the claws of doubt and indecision, as polls repeatedly show, these past six months. Suddenly the Irish scenario of 2001 during the ratification of the Treaty of Nice (there was a "No" vote of more than 58%) is no longer an absurd hypothesis, and can well block the European institutional machine.

Many are undecided

Up until now, the "Yes" camp seemed capable of winning, since a poll dated 25 May published by the Sunday Business Post gave the "Yes" 41% of the votes, with 33% for the "No", 26% being undecided. (34% in April, more than double the figure for the end of 2007). But if the partisans of the treaty seem to be leading the race, they fail to open a lead on their rivals, who, by force of argument and explanations, manage to nibble away at the terrain.

The pressure seems to be at its maximum. Taking into account their previous misadventures, the Dublin government has injected more than 6 million euros into the campaign. Under investigation by the courts, with a corruption scandal at hand, and under attack by the opposition, Bertie Ahern of the Fianna Fail (center right party) was forced to resign his post as "taoiseach" (prime minister) in mid-May, after 11 months as head of the government, in order to avoid a vote of sanction. The task of his successor, vice prime minister and minister of finance, Brian Cowen, and his allies in the coalition government (including the Green party) has been to underline the urgency of a victory for the "Yes". And this man, coming from a rural county of Offaly did not fail to mobilize every last politician and media spokesman in order to avoid repeating the psycho-drama of 2001 (the Treaty of Nice finally adopted one year later). So he was in charge of the European dossier.

The majority of the political parties represented in Parliament call for ratification of the treaty : the Fianna Fail, the Fine Gael (center left), principal opposition party led by Enda Kenny, The Workers’ Party (Lab) and the little Progressive Democratic Party (PD). The Green party is divided (60% favorable to the treaty, at their congress in January), the militants joining one camp or the other on the basis of their personal opinions. Before his resignation, Bernie Ahern had predicted the worst in the event of a victory of the "No", putting to the fore the responsibility of the Irish people, and reminding the electorate on many occasions that the nation, great beneficiary of regional structural funds, owed much to Europe. Not deviating from this political line, his successor, once in power, launched the appeal "Say yes to opening up, yes to a new Europe, and no at last to totalitarianism — don’t listen to those who say we will be submerged." One could hardly be more caricatural.

Sizable reinforcement for the camp of the "Yes", the last-minute rallying of the farmers, following the rally of the milk producers. Tuesday, the powerful Farmers’ Association , counting 85,000 members, worried by the fall in exports of its produce, decided to support the treaty, promised "support" of the prime minister during negotiations with the WTO. Cowen in effect said he was "ready" to use his veto if the agreement turned out to be unfavorable to Ireland. "We will contact our members across the country, as well as all those working in the agrobusiness sector and food production, to urge them to vote "Yes", said their president, Padraig Walshe, who a few days earlier had called for a contrary vote. The propositions of the European commissioner Peter Mandelson could, in his opinion, lead to the loss of 100,000 jobs in agriculture and the food industry in Ireland, and cost 4 billion euros to the economy of the country.

The camp of the "No" counts on the parties of the left, the middle classes, and those abandoned by the "Celtic tiger", hit hard by the drop in development, by the real estate crisis, by unemployment and a rise in inflation. This political sector includes also a segment of the Catholic right opposed to any liberalization of abortion, and of xenophobes who claim that the treaty will rob Ireland of its control over its frontiers. On the left, 11 organizations including the Sinn Fein, represented in Parliament, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party of Ireland (PCI), the workers’ party and the Irish antiwar movement, have created a collective and committee for the "No". This committee campaigns to avoid any infringement to the tradition of military neutrality (a policy of defense and common security), against the lack of democracy in the treaty, its infringement of Irish sovereignty, and equally against the attacks on social rights and public services, the lavish gifts made toward privatization. Their arguments have snow-balled, giving cold sweat to the European leaders sent these recent weeks to Dublin to bring the good word concerning the Treaty of Lisbon. For example, the president of the Commission in Brussels, in April : "In case of a ’No’ there will be no ’Plan B’". Does this remind you of anything ?