Keynes Not Enough to Face Crisis, Return to Marx Necessary
Trade Union Coordinating Committee Hones Demands
Economic Growth Nose-Dives
One figure among many...
Portugal: Brussels prepares to tighten the screw
Retail Clothing Industry – One Job in Ten May Go by End of Year
French Statistical Bureau Predicts Rising Unemployment in 2013
Historic Fall in Household Consumption in 2012
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At school: “Priority in Education Does Not cope with austerity budgets”.
French Purchasing Power and Consumption Drooping
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Tax Evasion Costs France Between 40 and 60 Billion Euros Per Year
Greek Electors On the Eve Of A Decisive Turn Of the Screw
The German Model Is Breaking Down
Raids Target Supermarkets in Spain
Moody’s Sends Shockwaves Through Germany
PSA’s Restructuring Plan Spells a Social And Political Upheaval
Shame on Them!
Solidarity with the Greek Resistance!
G20 Summit Haunted by Fear of Democracy
Maximum Pressure on the Greek Authorities: Tutelage Or Out!
Only the Acropolis Remains Not Yet For Sale
Patrick Le Hyaric : « These attacks were meticulously prepared and co-ordinated ».
Our refugee crisis: the world turns away, and Europe walls itself up
With the risk of Brexit comes a new European agreement that is harsh for the ordinary employee, but lenient on City boys and girls
A harsh blow for European workers and migrants
Taxation: Bercy softer on the definition of tax havens than Brussels
Agreement on fishing in Brussels
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A fighting left
France declares its intention to derogate from the European Convention on Human Rights
Marine Le Pen cheats the European Parliament
Huge demonstration in Berlin against the EU-US trade deal
Historic Ceasefire in Colombia
The United States in Total Support of the Turkish Offensive
Benin’s Cultural Treasures far from their Native Land
Erdogan vs Gülen: From Religious Idyll To “Treason“
The Fate of Syria will be Decided in Aleppo
Turkey: HDP’s Eyyup Doru – "What we need is democracy and freedom"
Thousands of Judges under Arrest
65.3 Million People Displaced Worldwide
The Pacific zone must not become a battleground
Labour candidate Sadiq Khan is elected mayor of London
“Universal access to water has given way to economic interest”
The Thesis of the Assassination of Neruda is Becoming Clearer
ORIGINAL FRENCH ARTICLE: La zone euro dans le noir aussi
by Pierre Ivorra
The Euro Zone Also In the Doldrums
Translated Saturday 17 December 2011, by and reviewed by Henry Crapo
The French national institute for economic statistics [INSEE] shows the South drowning, Germany going down, and the banks getting short of breath. The only way out: to bypass the financial markets.
According to the Institute’s scenario based on the current economic circumstances, the euro zone should also dip into recession during this fourth term, with growth falling steadily into the first term of 2012 and stagnating in the second. One of the most striking features is the gap between the euro zone and the rest of the world. The Institute notes that whereas in the fourth term of 2012 Western Europe will be sinking into recession, notably because ’budgetary policies will still be shrinking’, the US economy is still growing ’at nearly the same rate as in the third term.’ The Institute predicts the same growth pattern for Japan, and a slowing down of growth in emerging countries. At the start of 2012 the US and Japan ’should be only lightly hit by the turbulences in the euro zone.’
Western Europe is therefore the most ailing area in the world. Even Germany should be affected. Economic growth in France’s neighbouring partner looks to shrink by 0.2% in the fourth term of 2011, stagnate in the first term of 2012, and slightly rebound - by 0,2% - in the third term.
But the most striking prediction in the INSEE scenario is the sinking into recession of EU Southern countries, with Spain and Italy already in recession in this fourth term through the second semester of 2012 without any rebound in the second term. This emphasizes the other striking element in the INSEE prospective scenario, namely the widening gap between North and South in the EU - together with the attending risks of the zone’s imploding - namely gaps between growth, unemployment and government-bond rates. Thus Greece’s unemployment rate in the third term of 2011, as made known yesterday, is at 17.7% as compared with 12.4% a year before. The rates for Spanish ten-year government-bonds rose from 5.443 to 5.545 %. But the gaps between France and Germany are also widening.
This situation gives the lie to the statement of the ECB’s president Mario Draghi who presented the conclusions of the 2-3 December summit as ’advances towards clear budgetary rules in our monetary union’ that remain to be ’quickly implemented’. EU President Herman Van Rompuy himself announced that the next EU summit will take place some time between late January and early February next year to tackle the issues of the debt crisis and competitiveness and employment within the Union.
Enough to keep them busy indeed!
