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Coming Elections. France on Focus. How...

How modern methods of forecasting let us understand what will be the destiny of the fifth Republic?

Translated Thursday 24 November 2016, by Nicola Miguleuff

Coming Elections. France on Focus.
How modern methods of forecasting let us understand what will be the destiny of the fifth Republic?
Nowadays European experts analyze intently the victory of Donald Trump on the US elections. Media labeled Trump as a peaceful candidate for the US Presidency in comparison with his opponent Hillary. However, this statement is at the minimum hypocritical, as Donald Trump is a very militant leader. It would be entirely probable that “soft” democrats led by Hilary have started the third world war, but they might have been just stuck in financial machinations while the military orientation of Trump’s policy is obvious in spite of the fact that many choose not to notice it. The morning after the elections the shares of leading defense US companies rose from 5% up to 7%. The famous American military analyst Jim McAleese forecasts that the newly elected US president will not only increase the military budget of the USA, but also ensure the rise of expenses from $9 to $18 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO). Moreover, he is going to modernize the anti-ballistic missile defense system, improve the nuclear potential of America that “…became out of date in comparison with the Russian nuclear arsenal”. In addition, he plans to refresh the navy and increase the number of military ships upwards to 350 units. Moreover, Trump admits the possibility of nuclear preventive strike against the opponent “exclusively in peaceful goals”.
At the same time, the timid EU’s attempts to put him on the peaceful path, such as maintaining a nuclear agreement with Iran, have proved inefficient. The EU has not been able to develop a single strategy on what to do next. Britain and France torpedoed the emergency meeting of European powers on November 13th where the approach of the European block to the result of the US presidential elections had to be discussed. America does not hesitate to declare its rights and intentions, as opposed to isolated European leaders. Trump plans to make Europe arm themselves using their own means. At present, the USA pays more than 70% of NATO’s budget. Trump promised to get from NATO “allies” an “honest share” for alliance expenses.
Beyond the populist rhetoric that the analysts have about the results of US elections, there will be difficult times, if not to say hard ones. Trump’s victory unambiguously means that it will be an uneasy scenario, including possibly the increase of military tensions in the world. A showman has come to power; his administration will include the veterans from Ronald Reagan’s team. It is necessary to remember that the helpers of first actor-president had nearly led the world to nuclear catastrophe using the principle to appoint “an empire of Evil” and start a “crusade”.
The victory of radical populist Trump was unexpected for many analyst-statisticians. However, some researchers announced it. Lastly, it is necessary to admit that the methods of analysis based on the statistics of the past cease to work in the informational world. «The phenomenon that’s Trump» shows the necessity of changing the methods of and approaches to analysis. Modern forecasts in politics are like Merlin’s conjurations that could have worked in the past but have now been forgotten, the words lost in senility. In relation to this, we ask ourselves: “What can we expect from the elections in France?” A range of elections is coming to the EU. France is next. Basing on the old evaluation methods, some so-called “experts” foretold the victory of Alain Juppé on the republican primaries. It is obvious that they forgot the mistakes made by “the most hated” prime minister in modern French history, who refuses to meet the ordinary voters and rely exclusively on the support of the establishment. The result of the first tour of elections shows that French people do not forget his social reforms in 1995 having led to the street riots that lasted more than 3 weeks, practically paralyzing the country.
It is necessary to note the popularity of radical moods that are growing in Europe. People need strong leaders. However, the voting for populist citizens doesn’t solve public problems and may even worsen the situation. The populists say one thing and do another. Their declarations have not got any connection to reality. Populism is the creation of new myths and active usage of old ones.
French politicians have long ago performed the intentionally created “myth about the Republic”. “Republic” is used as a beautiful sign-board for French people, as is “democracy” for Americans. That’s why Mélenchon is advocating the “VI Republic”. For that reason, many analyst-statisticians think that the result of the elections in France will be determined by the November primaries, when republicans choose their candidate. Juppé took care to advance promotion of the myth “Republic”, spending government means on financing “Rally for the Republic”. For this he was sentenced conditionally in 2004 for imprisonment and it was forbidden for him to participate in elections during the next 10 years. It doesn’t seem to deter Alain Juppé in any way as he stands to run for the presidential elections. Moreover, the prince royal of French establishment ostensibly fights against populism, when in fact he represents it himself. Even scandalously popular Sarkozy, in comparison with Juppé, has more nationally-oriented views. In comparison to the Juppé’s reputation spotted with criminal cases, Fillon is clean and his policy is more oriented on the national interests of France. Fillon’s policy is controversial, but he tries to stick to common sense. He was one of the few who supported the abolition of death penalty in 1981 as he is a liberal, but in 2013 he was for migrants’ quotas. He advocates for raising the retirement age, but due to his conservatism he is against “one sex marriages”.
The communist party of France may seriously work for the sake of the Motherland, if they do not orient on the dogmas of the past and can see the future to propose the perspectives of social development. Even the Pope notices the both communists and Christians openly stand against inequality in society. Francis called the existing system “an atrophy”. It proposes “cosmetic improvements” for the world, but it is not real development. Perhaps the task of the communist party, in spite of all difficulties, does not leave the French people in trouble but shows ideological orientation and formulates big ideas. Historically the communist party of France does not receive leading positions in the government, but it always has a big enlightening function. It is important to fulfill its missions honestly and prompt the citizens and other parties which way to go further, as it was in times of de Gaulle.
Today France, among other countries, needs strong politicians who formulate big ideas and consciously suggest clear development programs. Who will it be in the eyes of mass consciousness? It is still presently uncertain.
Nowadays the social tension is growing in the society. Political strategists try to use popular slogans to please the voters. However, the increase of protest moods as if with a wave of magic ballots will not stop at the voting points. To ease social inner tension it is necessary to take practical actions and defend the determined values and fin solutions for the issues connected with abortion, one-sex marriage, euthanasia, the death penalty and usage of GMO. It is reasonable that new leaders of France, including the one that will be chosen in the Parliament, will design the strategy of development, but not the tactics of survival and what is more important it is that they must be able to put their plans into practice and simply explain what they think and what they do.
Today it must not be just a leader, a representative of a party or any other group that is chosen. Unconsciously, the voter considers the question whether a candidate will cope with this heavy load that a voter would like to put on him. This statistic evaluation method, that empirically fixes the past events, renders unkind service in the new conditions of new times. We are still lacking new methods and approaches. The current method of political forecast is one of the ways to manipulate public opinion. The more psychological pressure on the voters, the higher are the expectations and the requirements of the candidate, leading to a faster disappointment due to unrealized expectations. The US administration could not cope with this counter-action. If the new leaders do not fulfill their promises, they will be quickly turned into the outcasts and cause a social disorder. Anyway, the one thing that is clear is that the primaries are being used as a political instrument in new conditions, which have become a double-edged sword. Now the winner of the primaries has a big chance that he will manage to disappoint the people before even the elections themselves.
Will France cope with new challenges or it will be overtaken by deep disappointments? It depends on the inner wisdom and foresight of the French people. The key parameters for the elections will be feeling that the leaders are involved in people’s problems and understand ordinary life, including the problems with illegal migrants. At least France has what it can rely on and what it can address. The people of the Republic (in its direct sense from latin Res publica meaning “public affair” ) really have the choice.

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